Der er mange forskellige analytikere som hver især har deres egen vurdering af eksempelvis Tyrkiet.
Hvis man nærlæser Lars Christensens artikel tror jeg i øvrigt han mener, at investorer på KORT sigt (indtil valget er overstået) bør være forsigtige pga. evt. uro omkring valutaen og renten. Han fraråder jo ikke ligefrem at investere i Tyrkiet på lidt længere sigt. Og det har han jo heller ingen grund til.
Jeg hæfter mig meget mere ved, at de store internationale ratingselskaber grundlæggende er positive eller som minumum klassifiserer udviklingen som stabil på Tyrkiet.
Moody´s (et af verdens største og meget respekterede ratingselskaber) skriver d. 9.5.07 bl.a. følgende:
“Moody’s Investors Service says the recent political turbulence in Turkey is not likely to fundamentally derail the country’s current ratings nor its ongoing progress towards economic and political modernization, although considerable uncertainty remains about how the situation will play out.
«Despite tensions over the selection of the next president due to the military’s objections to the ruling party candidate, the government’s Ba3 ratings as well as the Ba1 foreign-currency country ceiling are sufficiently capable of absorbing such volatility, just as they were during the more general upheaval in emerging markets roughly a year ago,» said Moody’s Vice President Kristin Lindow.
She added: «We continue to expect that Turkey’s impressive positive turnaround during the past six years will remain largely intact, mitigating the risks posed by the country’s heavy public and external indebtedness.»
While recent difficulties have understandably shaken the confidence of financial markets and have raised additional concerns about Turkey’s EU membership prospects, Lindow said, the most likely outcome to the political crisis will be a new civilian government committed to ongoing reform.
«Politics might become more complex should a new parliament comprised of more political parties replace the current alignment in the upcoming elections, as now seems likely,» said the analyst. «The situation remains fluid. Moody’s will continue to monitor developments to ensure the appropriateness of Turkey’s ratings.»
Standard & Poor´s (et andet af verdens største og meget respekterede ratingselskaber) skriver d. 1.5.07 bl.a. følgende (udpluk):
LONDON (Standard & Poor’s) May 1, 2007–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
said today that the escalation in political tensions over the past week are
unlikely to have any immediate impact on the sovereign credit ratings on the
Republic of Turkey (foreign currency BB-/Stable/B
local currency
BB/Stable/B).
«Turkey’s creditworthiness is underpinned primarily by the improvements
in economic management witnessed over the past six years,» said Standard &
Poor’s credit analyst Farouk Soussa.
Turkey’s fundamental creditworthiness, however, is largely unaffected by
near-term volatility in financial markets. Strong fiscal consolidation over
the past six years, vastly improved monetary policy and stability,
wide-ranging reform in the banking sector, and a surge in investment, productivity, and economic growth, are all factors that have helped underpin
the robustness of the Turkish economy. This was demonstrated in May and June
of 2006, when a 25% depreciation in the currency over the space of a few weeks
had limited impact on the real economy, save through a rise in inflation
expectations and a subsequent hike in interest rates by the central bank.
Disse vurderinger taler jo for sig selv.
Jeg ærger mig naturligvis også over den megen negative medieomtale om Tyrkiet – især i de danske medier. Det skyldes nok især 2 ting. Uvidenhed om Tyrkiet og måske endda aldrig besøgt landet. Sensation! Negative historier sælger mere end positive. Og så skal man altid sætte tingene lidt i perspektiv og lade være med at generalisere. Tyrkiet er et stort land både geografisk og befolkningsmæssigt.
Jeg synes vi, der kender Tyrkiet eller på anden måde har en ”aktie”, har en stor opgave i fortsat at markedsføre landet på en objektiv og nuanceret måde.
Hilsen Jens Niemann Olesen