De fleste kloge hoveder hernede i Spanien er efterhånden enige om at de sidste års store prisstigninger har nået et punkt hvor vi skal til at trække vejret igen. Man mener at 2004 vil ende med en værdi forøgelse på ca. 7 %, altså det dobbelte af inflationen. 15-20 % per år er dermed overstået og vi er mange der ser det som et godt tegn. Ro og stabilitet er sundt og markedet trænger til at blive luet ud for for de aktører der har tjent godt på div. mere eller mindre skumle forretnings koncepter i gråzonerne. Her er lidt headlines fra et anerkendt tidskrift (SPANISH PROPERTY INSIGHT NEWS BULLETIN):
«So far so good in the Spanish property market. There is evidence of a slow down but nothing too abrupt and the much hoped for soft-landing looks increasingly possible. Construction activity and property prices have been roaring ahead at an unsustainable rate over the past few years leading to fears of a painful readjustment. Given the Spanish economy’s unhealthy dependence on the property sector a big readjustment would be painful indeed»
«Growth in number of new homes started falls by 50%
According to figures provided by the Spanish Government the number of residential building permits granted in March 2004 was up by 17% to 63,000 compared to March 2003. This compares with the 40% increase registered in March 2003 over 2002 - a reduction in the growth rate of over 50%. Some industry commentators have used these figures to argue that the Spanish real estate sector is experiencing a soft landing given that demand is slowing down due to high property prices»
«Foreigners buy 150,000 properties in Spain every year
150,000 properties - approximately 15% of the properties sold in Spain each year - are sold to foreign buyers. Of this figure 90,000 are bought by EU citizens as second homes whilst 45,000 are bought by foreigners moving to Spain for good. A recent report by Analistas Financieros Internacionales for the Association of Developers and Contractors of Spain (APCE) concludes that 200,000 foreigners will move to Spain every year until 2008, implying the foreigners will continue to play a significant role in the Spanish real estate market.
«Industry experts believe that property prices will increase by 7% in 2004
According to José Luis Marcos, Director of the real estate consultancy Roan, Average Spanish property prices will increase by 7% in 2004, double the rate of inflation. He estimates that 600,000 new properties will be started in 2004 (down from 690,000 in 2003), falling to an average of around 350,000 to 400,000 new properties started each year in 2007 and 2008»
Så Jeg må derfor meddele at tingene ser relativt fornuftige ud. Jeg mener ikke at man kan samligne med hvad der skete i 90erne. Det var en anden tid. En tid hvor englænderne sad på næsten hele markedet. I dag hjælper Spanierne godt med (højere leve standard og dermed råd til «sommerhus»). Det skandinaviske marked vokser stødt år for år. Vi ser flere og flere belgiere og Hollændere bare for at nævne et par nationer som ingen rigtigt tænker på. Det tyske marked har været meget dårligt i snart 2 1⁄2 år - men de første positive signaler er blevet bekræftet. Ikke at vi forventer at blive rendt over ende af Tyskerne, men giv det et par år til og så skal vores rustne tysk poleres igen.
Så alt i alt må det siges at fremtiden ser lovende ud. Der skal arbejdes for føden og sådan skal det være.
Mvh
Thomas Stilling
Indehaver
INLAND Property Centre
www.inland-property.com